Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

130
FXUS64 KBRO 112315 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Key Messages:

* Isolated to scattered sprinkles/rain showers ongoing over parts
  of the area will continue through this afternoon before waning
  later this evening/tonight.

* Showers and thunderstorms (perhaps strong the severe) could
  develop late Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night;
  low-medium (30-40%) chances.

* There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  over the northwestern sections of the area Sunday PM; Marginal
  Risk (Level 1 of 5) elsewhere. Damaging winds, large hail, an
  isolated tornado, and heavy rainfall/localized flooding are the
  primary threats.

* The best timing for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will be
  between 6PM CDT Sunday to 3AM CDT Monday.

* Warmer than normal temperatures, dry, and at times breezy
  conditions will prevail next week (Mon-Fri).

* Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) marine conditions will
  continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The main weather concern during the forecast period will continue
to be on the risks for showers and thunderstorms this weekend,
particularly Sunday evening/Sunday night. Otherwise, mainly dry,
normal to warmer than normal temperatures, and at times breezy
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

We start off the forecast period today, where the region sits
under an at times active southwest flow aloft regime and on the
leeward side of a potent upper low over the western U.S. Latest
GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and radar scans reveal a SCT-OVC
deck of stratocumulus clouds from overnight`s mist/low stratus in
place over the region with some diurnal sprinkles/rain showers
around.

Forecast models continue to depict a couple rounds of shortwaves
(some of which can be rather vigorous) moving over the region. The
first round will come this afternoon into tonight and another
round later in the day on Sunday into Sunday night. As sfc heating
continues to increase during the day today, instability values
will also increase. This combined with nearby shortwaves will
help to maintain the sprinkles/showers ongoing already. There is
an outside chance for a thunderstorm or two developing this
afternoon into this evening. Limiting factors will be weak CAPE
and bulk shear values, despite solid mid-level lapse rates. Given
the observations and recent trends, and after collaboration with
neighboring offices, have decided to bump up PoPs today across the
region. That said, have isolated chances or low (20-30%) chances
for showers and thunderstorms developing later this afternoon.

Otherwise, expect for dry conditions with breezy southerly winds to
prevail through today with high temperatures topping out in the mid
to upper 80s. For tonight, outside of the risk for any lingering
showers, expect for a quiet and warm night with overnight low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. There could be some mist/fog/low
stratus that develops overnight due to the combination of ample low
level moisture and some radiational cooling.

As mentioned, better chances for showers and thunderstorms will
exist Sunday, specifically late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening
persisting through Sunday night. CAM models continue to depict a
more robust shortwave moving overhead Sunday evening. This combined
with strong CAPE values and still solid mid-level lapse rates could
present better opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening/night. The RRFS model continue to depict showers and
thunderstorms developing off the Sierra Madre Oriental Sunday
afternoon and translating east-northeastward into our CWA Sunday
evening/night. The best timeframe for these thunderstorms to develop
will be between the hours of 6pm CDT Sunday to 3am CDT Monday.
Again, based off recent model and forecast trends, and after
collaboration with neighboring offices, have decided to bump up
PoPs for Sunday. That said, have low to medium (30-40%) chances
for showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday evening/night.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5)for severe thunderstorms over the northwestern
sections of our CWA including the northwestern half of Zapata County
and extreme northwest Jim Hogg County with the remainder of Deep
South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats. Can`t rule out an isolated tornado. While we currently are
not under an risk for excessive rainfall, heavy rain and localized
flooding is possible Sunday evening/night due to the combination of
high atmospheric moisture content and the likelihood of slow
moving storms. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to
be between 1.5-2 inches, some +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal. We
will continue to monitor thunderstorm, severe weather, and heavy
rainfall/flooding trends. Otherwise, expect for warm and dry
conditions to continue with high temperatures in the mid 80s near
the coast to near 90F degrees west.

Rain-free, warmer than normal, and at times breezy conditions will
prevail Monday through Friday of next week. High temperatures are
progged to range between the upper 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low
temps are expected to range between the upper 60s/low 70s over
the Northern Ranchlands to the low to mid 70s along the Rio Grande
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Satellite imagery this evening reveals overcast skies and MVFR
ceilings settling across the region, likely persisting through the
remainder of the 0Z TAF cycle as moisture remains elevated.
Periods of IFR clouds are possible within a few hours either side
of sunrise tomorrow morning. Breezy southeasterly winds persist
as well, around 10-15 knots and gusting up to 20-25 knots
overnight before increasing back to 15-20 knots, with gust up to
30 knots, likely again by tomorrow afternoon. PROB30s have been
introduced for the low to medium chance of showers and/or
thunderstorms by late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) marine conditons will prevail
through next week thanks to an enhanced pressure gradient
resulting in breezy winds out of the south and building wave
heights. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will be needed
each afternoon through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  85  73  86 /  10  30  30   0
HARLINGEN               70  87  69  88 /  10  30  30   0
MCALLEN                 74  89  75  91 /  10  40  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  90  72  91 /  10  40  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  78  73  78 /  10  30  30   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  83  71  84 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...65-Irish