Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

817
FXUS64 KBRO 192336
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Unsettled weather and near to slightly below normal temperatures
  will continue through early next week across Deep South Texas.

- The highest precipitation chances and rainfall amounts will
  reside primarily across the low/mid RGV.

- The main threats with any stronger activity will be brief, heavy
  rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The latest radar and satellite imagery depict scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across Deep South Texas early this
afternoon, with GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water product measuring
upwards of 2.0 inches across the Rio Grande Valley and portions
of the Northern Ranchlands. This mornings 12Z BRO sounding
measured precipitable water values of 2.27 inches, which is well
above the 90th percentile (2.0 inches) according to SPCs
Sounding Climatology page. This uptick in moisture content is tied
to an influx of deep tropical moisture associated with a tropical
wave in the southern Gulf currently tracking westward toward
Mexico. In combination with diurnal instability, expect isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
afternoon hours across the region. Brief, heavy rainfall,
lightning, and gusty winds to 30-40 MPH may accompany any stronger
activity that develops this afternoon through tomorrow night.
Severe weather is not expected.

The forecast PoPs remain on track for the Rio Grande Valley, but
have adjusted PoPs across the Northern Ranchlands to better
reflect current trends with convection reaching further north and
west. Anomalously high precipitable water values should persist
through tomorrow, as depicted by the latest suite of high res
guidance, which should result in continued precipitation chances
through Friday evening. The highest precipitation chances (40-70%)
will reside across Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, which
coincides with the highest moisture content, while low to medium
precipitation chances (20-50%) across Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg,
Brooks, and Kenedy counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Daily low to medium (20-50%) precipitation chances will continue
through the weekend and into early next week across Deep South
Texas, with the highest chanced generally across the low/mid RGV.
The best timing will remain mainly during the late morning through
early evening hours as diurnal instability increases, but isolated
to scattered activity may persist into the overnight hours closer
to the immediate coast and Gulf waters as pockets of higher
moisture content and instability translate north to northwestward.
The latest trends indicate the axis of highest precipitable water
values may shift further south on Sunday and early next week,
resulting in more isolated coverage of any activity that develops
with daytime heating. The main weather threats with any activity
will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. As far
as rainfall amounts, accumulations around half an inch to an inch
are expected along and east of US-281, although probabilistic
guidance indicates there is a potential for locally higher amounts
closer to 1.5-2 inches. Otherwise, increased cloud cover and
precipitation chances will result in near to slightly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

At the time of this writing, all terminals are experiencing VFR
skies and conditions, accompanied by a moderate (10-15 knots)
ESE breeze, which should continue through at least 01 Z this
evening. A cluster of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms,
currently over the Gulf, is working its way to the WNW and may
bring a brief period of reduced/MVFR visibility and ceilings to
KHRL and KBRO around sunset, if it manages to hold together, noted
in the first PROB30 groups. Meanwhile, winds are expected to
diminish to light and variable throughout the remainder of this
evening. Later tonight/early Friday morning and into the
remainder of the 00 Z TAF cycle, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail along with additional PROB30 groups as further rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible, bringing MVFR conditions
with brief periods of gusty winds. Moderate (10-15 knots)
southeasterly winds return by Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with low to
moderate seas and light to moderate southeast winds. There will be
daily rain/storm chances over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre
through early next week, with the best rain/storm chances expected
through Friday. Low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances will
exist through the weekend. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible within any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  90  78  89 /  50  70  40  50
HARLINGEN               75  90  75  91 /  30  60  20  40
MCALLEN                 77  92  76  93 /  30  60  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  90  74  88 /  20  50  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /  50  60  40  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  89  77  89 /  50  60  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...65-Irish